How This RANDOM Entry Beat The Market: The Tom Basso Coin Flip Proven and Explained

Research / Trading

More free market research here: http://www.asxmarketwatch.com/2015/12/this-simple-indicator-smashes-buy-and-hold-returns/

Have you ever heard people say that a monkey with a dartboard can outperform the market? Although it's been quoted and requoted thousands of times, I believe it came from "A Random Walk Down Wall Street."

Van Tharp, in his book "Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom", outlined an experiment where he selected stocks at random - long and short - and used an ATR Stop with a 1% Risk Model (fixed fractional position sizing).

In this video I use the powerful tool, Amibroker, and 1000 different runs of 15 stock portfolios (Monte Carlo analysis) to see if, and how, this really works. The results will surprise you.

http://www.asxmarketwatch.com/

- Dave McLachlan

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Sriram Ramanathan

Published on November 10th 2018, 9:02:45 am

Thanks Tom. I tried to do this in Excel and found that it was hard to automate since there is a new high and a new low in each cycle that needs to be adjusted manually. Am I missing something ? Right now I compute drawdown as Current Value/6-month average value (weekly)-1 and I am pleased with how I feel about that emotionally.

Very grateful for your willingness to share your knowledge Tom and I try to emulate your character and approach.

More free market research here: http://www.asxmarketwatch.com/2015/12/this-simple-indicator-smashes-buy-and-hold-returns/

Have you ever heard people say that a monkey with a dartboard can outperform the market? Although it's been quoted and requoted thousands of times, I believe it came from "A Random Walk Down Wall Street."

Van Tharp, in his book "Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom", outlined an experiment where he selected stocks at random - long and short - and used an ATR Stop with a 1% Risk Model (fixed fractional position sizing).

In this video I use the powerful tool, Amibroker, and 1000 different runs of 15 stock portfolios (Monte Carlo analysis) to see if, and how, this really works. The results will surprise you.

http://www.asxmarketwatch.com/

- Dave McLachlan

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